Friday, May 2, 2008

Dollar Rallies − Likely Support Levels for EUR/USD

The US Dollar had another strong rally today, despite another round of less than positive economic data.  The rising Dollar is pushing the EUR/USD pair down, as less Dollars are needed in exchange for each Euro.

The prior drop took us precisely down to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, which then proceeded to act as resistance for an entire week.  Today’s drop ended at 38.2%, and currently price is taking a breather and slowly retracing back up from there.

1.5415 now remains a key support level to watch.  If price begins to move up, then look to 1.5646 to act as resistance once more.  If price breaks below 1.5415, then look for it to find support at 1.5229, 1.5043, or 1.4778.
 
fxKnight.com

Posted by Lejar at 02:10:45 | Permalink | No Comments »

The Trading Week: May 4 − May 9

May 2, 2008 (Allthingsforex.com) – In the week ahead, traders will focus on the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing data, as well as on three interest rate announcements from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is a quick look at the most important economic events that every currency trader should pay attention to.

Sunday, May 4 will start the trading session with New Zealand’s Labor Cost Index of inflation in worker’s compensation and wages, at 6:45 pm, ET, followed by the Australian Services PMI- Purchasing Managers Index of the level of activity by purchasing managers in the services sector, at 7:30 pm, ET.

More news from “down under” will bring the first spotlight event of the week- the Australian TD Securities Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge used a timely indicator of the official quarterly Consumer Price Index, at 8:30 pm, ET.

The day will conclude with the Australian House Price Index of changes in house prices, at 9:30 pm, ET, and New Zealand’s Commodity Price Index of inflation in commodities’ prices, at 11:00 pm, ET.

Monday, May 5 will begin with the Euro-zone Investor Confidence in the economy, at 4:30 am, ET.

The U.S. economic data will deliver one of the main spotlight events of the week- the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index of economic conditions in industries like agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade, at 10:00 am, ET. If the Institute for Supply Management Index shows a reading below 50, that would indicate economic contraction.

The day will end with the Australian Trade Balance of the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services, at 9:30 pm, ET.

Tuesday, May 6 will start with one of the major spotlight events of the week- the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Interest Rate Announcement, at 12:30 am, ET.

Another spotlight event- the Swiss CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, will be released at 1:45 am, ET, followed by the Euro-zone Services PMI- Purchasing Managers’ Index of the level of activity by purchasing managers in the services sector, at 4:00 am, ET, and the U.K. Services PMI- Purchasing Managers’ Index, at 4:30 am, ET.

More news from the Euro-zone will deliver a spotlight event- the Euro-zone PPI- Producer Price Index, the main measure of inflation experienced by manufacturers, at 5:00 am, ET.  

There will be no notable U.S. releases for that day, but important data from Canada will bring the Canadian Building Permits, at 8:30 am, ET, and the Canadian Ivey PMI- Purchasing Managers’ Index of the level of activity by purchasing managers from all sectors of the economy, at 10:00 am, ET.

The closely watched U.K. Consumer Confidence in economic conditions, at 7:00 pm, ET, will warp up the day.

Wednesday, May 7 will begin with the U.K. Industrial Production, measuring the physical output of the nation’s factories, mines and utilities, at 4:30 am, ET.

A spotlight event will hit the newswires with the release of the Euro-zone Retail Sales, the main gauge of consumer spending, at 5:00 am, ET, followed by the U.K. BRC- British Retail Consortium Shop Price Index, measuring the rate of inflation experienced by retailers, at 5:30 am, ET, and the German Factory Orders, at 6:00 am, ET.

The U.S. economic data sequence will begin with a spotlight event- the U.S. Non-farm Productivity and Labor Costs Index, measuring the growth of labor efficiency and the level of inflation in worker’s compensation and wages, at 8:30 am, ET.

The U.S. news will continue with the U.S. Pending Home Sales Index, at 10:00 am, ET, and the EIA- Energy Information Administration Weekly Oil Inventories, at 10:30 am, ET.

The day will conclude with New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate and Employment Change, at 6:45 pm, ET, and the Australian Employment Situation Report, measuring the unemployment rate and the number of paid employees working part and full-time, at 9:30 pm, ET.

Thursday, May 8 will start early with the Swiss Unemployment Rate at 1:45 am, ET, the German Trade Balance, at 2:00 am, ET, and the German Industrial Production, measuring the physical output of the factories, mines and utilities in the Euro-zone’s largest economy, at 6:00 am, ET.

Two of the main spotlight events of the week will follow- Bank of England’s Interest Rate Decision at 7:00 am, ET and the European Central Bank’s Interest Rate Decision at 7:45 am, ET. No rate changes are expected from both of these central banks.

After the interest rate announcements, the U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and the Canadian Housing Starts will be released at 8:30 am, ET.

Another important event that morning will be the European Central Bank’s President Jean-Claude Trichet speech at 8:30 am, ET at the press conference in Frankfurt following the ECB Governing Council’s interest rate decision. The language of the statement will be very closely watched for any hints of future changes in the ECB’s monetary policy.

More U.S. data will bring the U.S. Wholesale Inventories, at 10:00 am, ET, the EIA- Energy Information Administration Weekly Natural Gas Inventories, at 10:30 am, ET, the U.S. Chain Store Sales, at 12:00 pm, ET, and the U.S. Money Supply by degree of liquidity, at 4:30 pm, ET.

The day will end with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Statement on economic growth, inflation and the future monetary policy, at 9:30 pm, ET.

Friday, May 9 will begin with the Japanese Leading Index of economic conditions, at 1:00 am, ET, and the French Industrial Production of the Euro-zone’s second largest economy, at 2:45 am, ET.

The last spotlight event of the week will come from Canada with the release of the Canadian Employment Report, measuring the unemployment rate and the number of paid employees working part and full-time, at 7:00 am, ET, followed by the Canadian Trade Balance, at 8:30 am, ET.

The U.S. International Trade Balance, a measure of the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods and services, at 8:30 pm, ET, and the U.S. CASH- Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household Index, a monthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal financial situations, savings, and confidence to make large investments, at 9:00 am, ET, will wrap up the trading week.

Posted by Lejar at 02:08:47 | Permalink | No Comments »

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Introduction: How to Use the Currency Trading Centre

This book has been developed to help the Forex beginner, though experienced and professional currency traders may find it a handy reference.

Beginners and novice Forex traders are likely to benefit from reading the entire text, starting with the first Chapter, which provides a basic overview of what currency trading is, and how to get started.

The chapters are set out in a logical flow, but do not need to be read in order to make sense, as each works as a discrete unit unto itself. You may prefer to focus first on those chapters that you feel will complement your particular knowledge base best. Read our forex glossary is a glossary of terms (listed alphabetically) used in the Forex business, that will prove helpful, and may serve as a valuable reference as you become an experienced currency trader.

With the help of this guide, you will soon be ready to start trading Forex – in fact, with the assistance of the online Easy-Forex™ team, you can start today. We wish you success in your trading, and hope you find this book interesting, helpful and enjoyable.

Before you start, please remember:

  • Currency trading (OTC Trading) involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone. Before deciding to undertake such transactions, a user should carefully evaluate whether his/her financial situation is appropriate for such transactions. Read more in the “RISK WARNING” section on the Easy-Forex™ Trading Platform website.

  • Always ask your Forex dealer (the FX TRADING PLATFORM you wish to trade with) the questions we prepared for you in this book (chapter 9). Selecting the appropriate Forex TRADING PLATFORM is essential for success in handling your trading and monitoring your activity, as well as maximizing profits, while minimizing losses and costs.

To get the complete currency trading book FREE Download it NOW

http://forex.easy-forex.com.au

Posted by Lejar at 09:20:08 | Permalink | No Comments »

Watch Forex Lesson one

This is an excellent Forex beginners guide filled with forex tips,  insights and need to know information for anyone interested in the “Forex”, Foreign Currency Exchange.

    * Live Global Interactive Trading Room with live video feed enabling the FOREX Trader to seek advice and discuss their potential trades with a group of experienced FOREX Traders and Technical Analysts.
       
    * Advanced Charting - A true multiple time frame analysis software package for professional Forex traders. All charts have the capacity to plot indicators on three different time frames, which enables traders see what weekly and daily indicators are displaying compared to their intraday indicators on the same chart, all in real-time.
    * A twice daily in depth technical analysis of the four major world currencies with buy and sell recommendations on each chart. (TIPS System Analysis).
    * The Daily World Bank FOREX Report. This report focuses in on what positions the major world banks may take for the day in the four (4) major currencies against the USD.
    * Learn To Analyze Charts. In our online interactive global trading chat room, a professional trader teach each day on Technical Analysis. Lessons cover 20 important trading tools during the course of the month allowing the novice trader to be mentored. With scheduled live video feeds.
    * A FOREX TRADERS GUIDE. Explains how to get started trading currencies and discusses the FOREX, how it works, how to read a chart, the vocabulary words used by traders and their definitions, the types of orders used in trading and how to place them and finally a detailed explanation on how to profit from shorting the market.
    * Released on Sunday evenings a weekly list of the major fundamental announcements and reports throughout the world that move the world currencies and create great trading opportunities.
    * A Sunday evening Weekly World Bank FOREX Report discussing where the currencies have been and where they are most likely to go.
    * Real-Time state of the art charting of the world currencies with studies that include buy and sell signals.
    * 24 Hour FOREX BROKER with FREE commissions and FREE online trading software.

Smart traders take advantage of the markets before the markets take advantage of them.

Posted by Lejar at 09:18:50 | Permalink | No Comments »

The dollar ended the month of April in choppy or aggressive conditions

The dollar ended the month of April in choppy or aggressive conditions, depending on the currency pair. It rallied versus the European and the commodity currencies, while reversing gains to close flat against the yen. The Federal Reserve met the market expectations and cut its rates by 25 bps and the dollar should now see more pressure. With the continental Europe closed for May Day, trading should be subdued.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar reversed from its lowest level since April 3 to close higher on Wednesday. My model remains short, but the upside risk should continue to Friday. Immediate resistance is at 1.5645. A break above it would signal a more aggressive recovery to 1.5690. Distant resistance is at 1.5790. Initial support is at 1.5570. The next level is 1.5480. Distant support is 1.5355.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen fell from a two-month high to close basically flat on Wednesday as well. The pair remains in an uptrend, my model is long, but the immediate outlook is still mixed. Immediate resistance is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. The next levels remain at 105.20 and 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Strong support s pegged at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar surged from a two-month low to erase most of its Tuesday’s losses. My model now went long. The upside is limited. Initial resistance is at 1.9923 from a declining line. Above 2.0025, strong resistance is now pegged at 2.0190. Strong support comes at 1.9757. Distant support is at 1.9597.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss fell from a near two-month high to close lower on Wednesday. Unfortunately, choppy trading is expected today as well. Immediate support is now seen at 1.0300. The next level remains at 1.0260. This is followed by 1.0185. Support is then pegged at 1.0135. Initial resistance still comes at 1.0400. The next level is 1.0440. This is followed by 1.0550. Distant resistance now comes at 1.0625.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Posted by Lejar at 09:15:58 | Permalink | No Comments »